By Matthew Hayward  In the wake of a rare tragedy, it is not uncommon for policymakers to propose public policies with far-reaching implications for the general public. The goal is often to protect a small number of people from harm, whether from themselves, a criminal, or a crazed individual. However, the metrics and methodology used to justify such policies are often flawed, leading to unintended consequences and a loss of personal liberties. One of the main issues with using rare tragedies to justify public policy is that they are statistically insignificant. For example, in the United States, mass shootings make up a tiny fraction of all gun deaths. Yet, they receive disproportionate attention in the media and from policymakers. This leads to a skewed perception of the danger posed by guns and a rush to pass laws that may not be effective in addressing the underlying issues. Furthermore, even when rare tragedies occur, it is often difficult to determine the root cause of the pr...