Metrics and Methodology: The Failure in Determining the Justification for Public Policy

By Matthew Hayward 

In the wake of a rare tragedy, it is not uncommon for policymakers to propose public policies with far-reaching implications for the general public. The goal is often to protect a small number of people from harm, whether from themselves, a criminal, or a crazed individual. However, the metrics and methodology used to justify such policies are often flawed, leading to unintended consequences and a loss of personal liberties.

One of the main issues with using rare tragedies to justify public policy is that they are statistically insignificant. For example, in the United States, mass shootings make up a tiny fraction of all gun deaths. Yet, they receive disproportionate attention in the media and from policymakers. This leads to a skewed perception of the danger posed by guns and a rush to pass laws that may not be effective in addressing the underlying issues.

Furthermore, even when rare tragedies occur, it is often difficult to determine the root cause of the problem. For example, after a school shooting, policymakers may propose stricter gun control laws, but this ignores other potential contributing factors such as mental health issues, bullying, or a lack of resources for troubled youth. Without a comprehensive understanding of the problem, developing effective policies that address the underlying issues is impossible.

Another issue with using rare tragedies to justify public policy is that it can lead to a loss of personal liberties. For example, after the 9/11 attacks, the US government passed the Patriot Act, granting the broad government powers to surveil its citizens. While this law was intended to prevent future terrorist attacks, it has also been used to infringe on the privacy rights of law-abiding citizens.

In order to develop effective public policies that do not infringe on personal liberties, policymakers must use sound metrics and methodology to determine the root causes of problems and develop evidence-based solutions. This requires a comprehensive understanding of the issue and a willingness to consider all contributing factors.

Policymakers must be willing to engage in open and honest dialogue with the public to ensure that any proposed policies are in line with public values and beliefs. This includes soliciting feedback from all stakeholders, including those who may be directly impacted by the proposed policy.

The use of rare tragedies to justify public policy is often fraught with issues stemming from flawed metrics and methodology. To develop effective policies that do not infringe on personal liberties, policymakers must use sound metrics and methodology to determine the root causes of problems and develop evidence-based solutions. They must also engage in open and honest dialogue with the public to ensure that any proposed policies are in line with public values and beliefs. Only then can we ensure that public policies are effective, just, and equitable for all.