By Matthew Hayward
BTC price at the time of this publication: $69,611.07
I hope you all survived the bear market and accumulated while prices were depressed. Now that Bitcoin has hit a new all-time high of $70,184, people are talking about it again. This always makes for an interesting time when people who got in late from the previous cycle and held for two years are back to even or slightly up and anxious to get out, while others are just buying in for the first time.
Most of us who have been in longer than one cycle are looking for this run's new high, not the new bottom; most of us are only considering selling now if we are all in and don't hold cash. Then perhaps we are cashing out what we need to pay bills and buy stuff, but we are not looking to get out; some may still be adding to our bags via dollar cost average (DCA).
I will not give anyone investment advice, but I will share what I am doing and my reasoning.
But first, one of the most important things to recognize is that things are changing. You can research past trends, look at charts, and listen to analysts all day. Still, you need to consider some macroeconomic factors, fundamental changes regarding institutional money and its impact on the supply, and global and national factors.
In this context, I want to acknowledge that we are in a period of great uncertainty. National and individual debt is soaring, and inflation rates have been alarmingly high. These are just a couple of factors that give us reasons to be concerned about the future of our economy.
Despite these challenges, there are silver linings that provide a glimmer of hope for investors. The job market has shown resilience, with solid job numbers being reported. The stock market has also reached new highs, signaling investor confidence in certain sectors. This juxtaposition of high negatives and positives creates a unique and confusing landscape for investors, making it difficult to discern whether we are in a recession, heading into one, or coming out of one.
Oh, and there is also the fact that Bitcoin is a finite digital asset that many view as a place to preserve wealth, a digital gold. Time will tell if this is true. The larger the market cap gets, the more it becomes true: preservation of wealth against government currencies.
Amidst this uncertainty, the acceptance of 11 spot BTC ETFs has changed the game. The SEC requires these ETFs to have physical custody of the Bitcoin, of which eight of the eleven are held by Coinbase as the custodian. This requirement ensures that this Bitcoin is not used to manipulate the market.
The Spot ETFs have created legitimacy on Wall Street and made BTC easy to have exposure to without creating new accounts or taking any risks outside of traditional investing through a broker. Much of this demand is intended for something other than day trading. It is being taken off the market and added to portfolios, significantly different from past market behaviors.
With institutional players buying more Bitcoin weekly than miners can mine—BlackRock alone is buying 10X more Bitcoin than miners can produce—the supply of Bitcoin on exchanges for sale is shrinking. Then you add Bitcoin's built-in supply halving, which happens every four years and is approaching in just over a month, and we have a perfect storm for a parabolic run.
When it comes to my personal investment strategy, there's a caveat. I'm not actively buying much at the moment because, to be frank, I massively overleveraged with borrowed money and went all in already, leaving me with little to no spare capital to invest. However, I have made some strategic moves with my portfolio.
On a few occasions, I've sold some of my altcoins and either reinvested the proceeds during a dip to buy them back or funneled them into Bitcoin. This approach has allowed me to take advantage of market fluctuations and optimize my holdings without injecting additional capital.
One important consideration for investors is to weigh the upside versus the downside potential. If you got in very early, these current prices might seem high enough to sell and take your profits. However, remember that others are entering the market for the first time right now, believing that these are low enough prices to see substantial gains in the future.
The question then becomes, will newer investors buying in now be able to achieve substantial gains? If you believe in Bitcoin's continued upside potential, it is logical to continue accumulating rather than selling. This decision should be based on your analysis of the market's trajectory and your confidence in the long-term growth of Bitcoin and other more speculative cryptocurrencies.
It's a delicate balance between taking profits and maintaining a position for future growth. Every investor's situation is unique, and what makes sense for one may not be for another. Before making any decisions, it's important to assess your investment goals, risk tolerance, and overall market conditions.
When managing your portfolio, periodically imagine you have liquidated all your investments and are holding 100% cash. Then, reevaluate the current valuations of your stocks and cryptocurrencies and consider how you would allocate your assets under these new conditions. This exercise can provide a fresh perspective and help you adjust your portfolio to reflect your current investment strategy and market conditions.
Nothing I say should be considered investment advice; if I were giving it, I would advise against following my lead and suggest a more balanced approach that includes greater diversification.
Ultimately, whether you choose to sell, buy, or hold, the key is to have a clear strategy and make informed decisions based on thorough research and analysis, never emotional knee-jerk reactions. As we navigate these volatile waters, staying informed and adaptable is necessary to capitalize on the opportunities in the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrencies.
Related blogs:
Comments
Post a Comment